[文章译介]How to analyze investmen

[文章译介]How to analyze investmen

How to analyze investment opportunities?

I have discussed before my criteria for screening dividend stocks. The screen narrows down the list of companies to look into more detail, to a more manageable level. In addition, it makes you focus on a set of companies with minimum set of earnings and dividend growth characteristics which are cheaper. Therefore, you would avoid looking at Automatic Data Processing (ADP) at 26 times earnings that yields 2.50%, and instead focus on researching the likes of Chevron (CVX) at 10.70 times earnings that yield 3.40%.

However, it is very important to avoid being short-sighted in regards to stock screens. This is due to the fact that data could not be fed correctly, or it might be misrepresented in the database you are using. For example, some companies usually record one-time adjustments to earnings. Any astute dividend investor should know to exclude these one-time items from the calculation of price earnings ratios. Back in 2010, Coca-Cola had to record a one-time gain on the acquisition of Coca Cola Enterprises North American Bottling Operations. As a result, the stock appeared as a much better bargain in comparison to PepsiCo (PEP). However, this was an illusion, made possible by the one time gain discussed earlier.

The opposite also happens, where a onetime adjustment could push earnings so low, that the P/E ratio and dividend payout ratios scream avoid. In reality, if a one-time adjustment should be taken out, it would usually show that the stock might be a good opportunity.

This is why simply relying on a stock screen to find ideas is not sufficient. This is also why astute dividend investors should research every prospective buy candidate one at a time.

For every company I look at, I focus on several quantitative factors to begin with:
1) Rising earnings per share over the past decade
2) Rising dividends per share over the past decade
3) A stable and sustainable dividend payout ratio
4) Returns on Equity that are stable over time

I also try to read the annual report, and quarterly press releases from the company. There is usually a lot of information, but not all of it can be actionable. I usually try to understand the company’s business while reading reports.However, the thing I am most interested in is trying to determine if there are catalysts for growth in earnings. Only a company that manages to grow earnings per share over time, will be able to afford to increase distributions for its loyal shareholders.

Companies can grow earnings by selling more products, creating new products and services, expanding in new markets, increasing prices, cutting costs, squeezing out inefficiencies, buying back stock, acquiring competitors to name just a few ways. Sometimes, companies can manage to grow earnings per share through a combination of all of the above. For example, Coca-Cola (KO) can earn much more per share, if it manages to convince the average consumer in China and India to drink as many servings of its product as the average US consumer. The average US customer consumes 401 servings of Coca-Cola product every year, compared to 39 in China and 14 in India.

I usually like to see companies which offer a product or service which is unique, and results in repeatable sales to consumers. I also look for companies that have strong brand names for products or services, which are pursued by a fan base of loyal customers. If the customers really like your product or service, and cannot get it anywhere else due to various reasons, you can have very good pricing power. This could be extremely profitable, if there is a limited amount of government regulation. This is referred to as the business having a moat, or strong competitive advantages.

For example, consumers who like Coca-Cola, would be much less likely to buy a Pepsi (PEP). Therefore, if a store does not offer Coke, customers are likely to go to another store to purchase their daily fix. The same is true for other branded products like Hershey (HSY) bars for example.

原文出处:

http://www.dividendgrowthinvestor.com/2014/04/how-to-analyze-investment-opportunities.html

如何分析投资机会?

 

之前我曾讨论过我筛选配息股票的标準。我缩小了企业列表以便找到更详细的资料,做更有效的管理。此外,它让你专注于在一些具最低收益与股息增长特色的廉价公司。因此,你会避掉市盈率26倍,股息收益率2.5%的Automatic Data Processing (ADP)公司,而专注在10.7倍市盈率3.4%的股息收益率的Chevron(CVX)股票上。

然而,避免过于短视关注在股票萤幕上是很重要的。这是由于,资料可能无法被正确的传输进去或是有可能被你正在使用的数据库所曲解。举个例来说,有些公司常记录的一次性调整盈利。任何精明的配息投资者都应该知道从市盈率的计算中排除那些一次性的项目。追溯到2010年,可口可乐(Coca-Cola)曾经记录一次性收益收购可口可乐企业北美瓶装业务。如照此结果判读,其股票比同业的百事可乐(PEP)具更好的交易条件。然而,这只是个假象,造成像稍前所提到的一次性收益。

相对的也有可能会发生,用一次性的调节使盈利降低来避开惊人的P/E 比率和股利支付率。在现实中,如果一次性调节必须被排除通常显示该股票可能处在一个好机会点。

这就是为什幺单纯的靠在萤幕去找灵感是不足的。这也是为什幺精明的股息投资者应该同时研究每一支潜在绩优股。

每间我所研究过的公司,我都会专注从几个固定的因素开始去研究 :

1.)    过去十年每股的营利率成长

2.)   过去十年每股的股息成长

3.)   稳定且可持续的配息率

4.)   稳定的股东权益报酬率(ROE)

我也尝试阅读年报及公司的新闻发布。通常可以得到大量的信息,但并非所有资讯的都是可操作的。我常藉由阅读财报去了解一间公司的业务。然而让我最感兴趣的是从中去推定是否有使营收成长的因素在里头。一间公司只有随着时间增长每股的盈余,才能负担的起增加分配给其忠诚的股东。

公司可以透过销售更多的产品、创新的产品和服务、拓展市场、提高价格、降低成本、提高效能、买回库藏股、收购竞争对手等方法来使营收成长。有时,企业可以同时藉由管理上述所有方式来增长每股收益。举个例来说,可口可乐可以藉由说服中国与印度的消费者达到像美国消费者一样的平均销售数字来使每股收益增加。目前美国消费者每年平均消耗401份可口可乐产品,在中国只有39份、印度只有14份。

我平时喜欢看那些可以不断提供给消费者独特性产品或技术的公司。我也会寻找知名品牌的产品或服务,这些公司往往会有一定族群的忠诚客户或粉丝。如果顾客真的喜欢你的产品或服务,且因为各种原因无法从他处取得,你就可以拥有很好的订价权。如果政府有设定个限定的数量,这将可能是非常有利可图的。我们通常指这样的事业具有护城河,或是具有强大的竞争优势。

举例来说,喜欢可口可乐的消费者是不太可能去买百事可乐。因此,如果一间店没有提供可乐,消费者可能会去其它店家补充日常所需。其他品牌如贺喜巧克力 Hershey (HSY)也是如此。

(中文翻译人员:张筱婷)内容如有错译,漏译请来信指正,感谢!)

本文出处